Believe Me Now? Phils Are Overrated
August 6, 2024
Let’s start this week’s blog post by trying to untangle a deep, dark mystery: Why were the Phillies the best team in baseball for the first two months, and one of the worst clubs over the past three weeks?
The fact is, we have no need for Sherlock Holmes, Hercule Poirot or Columbo to figure this one out, even though the local media seems highly perplexed and utterly mystified. The Phils were never that good. And right now, they are not this bad. They are still a playoff team, if for no other reason than the National League’s glut of terrible opponents.
As I wrote here in May, the Phillies were profiting from perhaps the easiest schedule any of our pro teams has ever encountered, a parade of the incompetent and the injured and the apathetic. To their credit, the Phillies feasted on these horrible foes. When the schedule turned, so did their fortunes. Imagine that.
Why no one in the media has bothered to crunch a few numbers here I cannot even begin to understand. It takes so little work, even a retired guy (me) could do it in five minutes.
From April 25 to May 25, the Phillies surged out to a big lead in the NL East by winning 22 of 26 games. Wow. What a team.
Left unsaid during that win-fest were the opponents: The Reds, Padres, Angels, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Rangers and Rockies. Every one of those opponents had a losing record. Every one of those teams, for want of a better word, sucked. (Most still do.)
Six weeks later, in the series before the All-Star break, the Phils stumbled against a pitiful team, Oakland, by losing two of three at home. Many Triple A clubs could win a series against the A’s, who are in the midst of a chaotic and controversial move to Las Vegas. At the time, the Phils players said they just needed a few days off to reboot.
Unfortunately, the schedule-maker had other plans. Instead of the putrid Nationals, the Yankees were coming to town. Instead of the woebegone Rockies, the Guardians were warming up in the bullpen.
To the shock of no one (with a functioning brain), the reboot turned into a boot in the ass, to the tune of 4-12. The opponents during that skid were, in order, the Pirates, Twins, Guardians, Yankees, Mariners and Dodgers.
Suddenly, Ranger Suarez was no longer the odds-on favorite to win the Cy Young Award. Christopher Sanchez was not the next Steve Carlton. Bryce Harper was not a .330 hitter. Jeff Hoffman was not the second coming of Brad Lidge. And Rob Thomson was, well, he was pretty much the same kind of clueless manager that Charlie Manuel was. (Some things never change.)
One thing that will not improve is the timid approach of the likeable but overrated skipper of this team, Thomson, who learned his preprogrammed ways from the king of the robots, Joe Girardi. Rob Thomson is definitely not Dallas Green. At this point, he may not even be Charlie Manuel.
On August 5, the Phillies were trailing the Dodgers, 5-3, in the ninth inning, but they had a runner on first base and a big bat still on the bench. Thomson had given J.T. Realmuto the night off because it is a proven medical fact that catchers could die if they play four or five straight games.
So, with the tying run on base and Realmuto chomping on sunflower seeds, his replacement, Garrett Stubbs (.188, 1 homer) had the honor of making the final out.
After the game, Thomson said about not pinch-hitting Realmuto: “You think about it, sure, but I still want to give (J.T) a day and keep him healthy.”
Huh? Was Thomson afraid his starting catcher would stumble and break his leg on the way to home plate? Does the manager actually believe that one trip to the batter’s box in a key spot would endanger Realmuto’s health?
Dallas Green was definitely rolling over in his grave when he heard that comment. (And Dallas definitely heard it because he is in heaven, where all Philadelphia sports heroes go.)
This is the same Rob Thomson who pulls Zach Wheeler even when his ace is cruising through the batting order because the pitch count is approaching the dangerous triple figures, the same skipper who would rather lose a big game than use his best relief pitcher in three straight games, the same weak soul who manages always from fear.
Maybe there’s a damn good reason Thomson never got a chance to manage a big-league team until he was 58. I’m just saying.
Anyway, it is not my inclination to end on a negative note, so now I will update my prediction to include the rest of the baseball season.
As someone who has become the gumshoe of the 2024 Phillies (that’s an old-fashioned word for detective), my latest investigation reveals some good news for the faithful, long-suffering fans. This team will make the playoffs, with ease. It will still win the division – for the same reason it started so well and is struggling so badly right now. Yup. The schedule.
In the final month of the season, the Phils will play 22 games against losing teams, including the same dogs (Nationals, Marlins, Blue Jays) that helped them build that impressive early record. They will surge into the playoffs, with the city buzzing with postseason excitement again.
After that, I refuse to speculate.
As I said a moment ago, I don’t want to end on a negative note.