Sept. 7, 2026
The formula doesn’t work. I don’t know how many times the Phillies are going to employ the same plan — great starting pitching, swing-from-the-heels hitting and meticulous adherence to analytics — before they realize that it guarantees failure.
I harbored some foolish hope that the numbers game the Phils have been playing, and losing, for a half-decade would change once Mr. Robot, Rob Thomson, yielded his place as manager to Don Mattingly in late April.
Surely, the new guy would value the use of baseball logic over the numerical analysis that has ruined season after season here. Mattingly was a consummate contact hitter, an RBI machine in his own borderline Hall of Fame playing career. He came from a time when hitting the ball mattered, when pitchers weren’t chained to pitch counts, when bunting and hit-and-running and advancing runners were the only formula for winning.
Sorry, fans. The epidemic of paralysis by analysis has snared Mattingly, too. He will offer no solace this fall. The Phillies will come up short again. There’s no doubt left in my mind. Off-load your confetti right now. There will be no parade this year.
How can I be so sure? Well, maybe you weren’t watching how Mattingly handled the latter stages of an extremely important game on Sunday against the division-leading Atlanta Braves.
The Phillies were ahead, 4-1, in the eighth inning, but Mattingly had to remove his highly effective starting pitcher, Aaron Nola, because the veteran righty was only seven pitches away from the terrifying — and completely arbitrary — 100-pitch mark.
Enter an unproven rookie, Alex McFarlane. Goodbye, lead. Closer Jhoan Duran completed the collapse the next inning when, once again, he flopped in a non-save role.
I hate to use some numbers of my own to prove the point, but Nola has been pitching in big games for 12 seasons and makes $25 million a year. McFarlane has been in the big leagues for five weeks and makes $780,000.
Without hesitation, Mattingly made the switch anyway. Why? Because in today’s game, the number 100 is all that matters. The number 100 in this case demanded the decision, even though it was illogical and damaging.
If Nola went out for the eighth inning, he would have broken the invisible 100-pitch barrier within a batter or two. The last thing the interim skipper wanted to test was whether or not Nola would combust when he released pitch no. 101.
So Mattingly chose McFarlane to replace him, and this is where the magic number 100 came into play again. You see, MacFarlane can throw a ball that regularly reaches, and often passes, the 100-mph mark on the radar gun. Guys who throw 100 are the ruling class in the analytics world.
You could see the disaster before it unfolded. Two outs, two men on base, and Ronald Acuna Jr. was at the plate. All seven fastballs by McFarlane to Acuna registered 100 mph or more. The last one was 101 when it reached the Atlanta superstar, and 106 mph when it left the bat on its way into the left-field bleachers 414 feet away.
If you’re keeping score at home, 93 pitches by Nola plus 101 mph by McFarlane equals a brutal 5-4 loss.
The analytics nerds who control the Phillies these days, and most of baseball, will never contemplate the numbers I just rolled out, and I would bet my car that Mattingly will apply the same numerical idiocy in the playoffs that he has been using in the regular season.
Acuna’s big home run — which he underscored with some histrionics on his trip around the bases — was not the end of the misery for Phillies fans on Sunday. Mattingly had one more rote move to assure the loss.
Fifteen or so years ago, it became common practice that closers must be summoned in the top half of the ninth inning in tie games. For some closers, this is fine. They perform the same way with or without a lead.
Not Duran, though. Definitely not Duran.
Anyone who has been watching Phils games this season knows Duran is an entirely different pitcher when he’s closing. He has a 0.81 ERA in that role, the role for which he was acquired last year. When the game is tied, or the Phils are losing, Duran’s ERA is 5.00.
Unfortunately, that last number did not supersede the etched-in-stone move to bring in a closer in the ninth inning of a tie game at home. It was dumb when Mattingly did it. The implosion that followed was inevitable.
If you’re waiting for a debate about the wisdom of Mattingly’s strategy in Sunday’s loss, check on Reddit or maybe in your corner tavern. The fans are miffed, as they should be. They have seen how this movie ends, and they have no desire to see it again.
Of course, if you’re waiting for a media person to challenge Mattingly, forget about it. By now, most of them have been hypnotized into buying whatever analytics is selling, with nary a word of complaint. They have left the task to dinosaurs like me, who come across as typical get-off-my-lawn grumps.
Guilty as charged.
But no one on the other side is offering any guarantees the way I am here. I guarantee the Phillies will blow it again this season. The best starting four in baseball and a roster packed with veteran stars will not be able to overcome the losing formula agains this year.
You wanna bet?
Let’s pick a nice round number.
How’s $100?
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Submitted for your consideration . . .
- In keeping with this old-headed blog post, I would greet Ronald Acuna Jr. on Labor Day with what once was called chin music — a fastball right above his neck — to remind him not to act the fool in Philadelphia. I doubt it would stop him from posturing, but I’m pretty sure all of the fans booing him on Sunday would appreciate it.
- These days, I check out philly.com just for the laughs. Over the weekend, there was this headline: Is Jhoan Duran having the best season ever by a Phillies closer? Ooo, I know the answer. No. The best season ever by a Phillies closer was Brad Lidge in 2008. He was 48 for 48 in saves, including a championship. How quickly they forget.
- The NFL owners just handed a four-year extension to commissioner Roger Goodell, through the year 2030. He will be 72 then, and almost rich enough to buy his own NFL franchise. In the annals of sports, no commissioner has ever been more a puppet for his billionaire bosses than Goodell. The easiest path to success is to find a group of billionaires, cover up all of their missteps, kiss their asses at every opportunity and make them even richer than they already are. Congrats, Roger. You did it all.
- I’m kind of new to the college game. (Hey, I’m retired now. I have to do something on Saturdays.) All I can say after that finish in the Michigan-Western Michigan game is the ruling that one second remained after the first Hail Mary has never been called before, and will never be called again. Michigan should send flowers to the refs who came up with that bogus decisionl. It was a gift.
- Here’s a few words of advice to all of the Jalen Hurts critics out there. Rest up. In less than a week, you can start babbling again about how he isn’t good enough to remain the Eagles franchise quarterback. You can start the campaign for Andy Dalton, Tanner McKee or Cole Payton. You can blame Hurts for bad play-calling, erratic passing, and global warming. You will be wrong again.