August 4, 2026
I had this fantasy that the 14 nerds in the Phillies analytics department were crunching numbers yesterday morning when GM Dave Dombrowski completed the trade with San Francisco for Luis Arraez.
When the news reached them, several of the dorks collapsed in shock, a few more spiked their pocket protectors, and – if we’re really lucky – at least a couple resigned in protest.
You see, Luis Arraez is the No. 1 villain of this analytics era, when the only thing that matters is hitting the ball as hard as you can. Life in this stupid little world is governed solely by exit velocities and launch angles. Striking out brings no shame. Making contact is optional.
Luis Arreaz stinks at exit velocities and launch angles. He is really only good at one thing – hitting the baseball. Arreaz hits it more often, and with more success, than anyone in the game. Amid a plethora of MLB hitters hovering around .200, Arreaz has a batting average of .324.
As for striking out, well, Luis has managed to do that 21 times in 420 plate appearances this season – the best rate of contact, by a large margin, in all of baseball. He makes it to strike three – ready for this? – once every 34 times at bat.
By way of comparison, if Arraez replaces Trea Turner as the Phils’ leadoff hitter, he will be taking over for a $300-million whiffer. Turner already has 106 strikeouts this season, in 484 at-bats. He has a 23% K rate, compared to Arraez’ 4.5 %.
Am I deluding myself when I embrace the thought that Dombrowski and his minions have finally come to realize there is value in contact? Is it too large a leap to conclude that the Phillies’ 990 strikeouts this season have forced the nerds to deal with a new reality? Is the pendulum finally swinging back from this analytics madness?
To find a spot for Arraez in the lineup, the Phils are moving three — three! — players to new positions. Alec Bohm is the first baseman now, Bryson Stott moves from second to third and Bryce Harper is headed back to right field. That seems like a major commitment, at least until the new second baseman reaches free agency again after the season. Why would the Phils go to all of this trouble if not to disengage, at least for a couple of months, from the evil spread of analytics?
Hey, we can dream, can’t we?
My own distaste for this invasion of the stat nerds is well chronicled in previous blog postings. I hate how the sport has evolved into a game of catch. I loathe how the subtle skills of hitting behind the runner or – heaven forbid – bunting have been buried in an avalanche of mathematical probabilities.
In my own recollection, this descent into hell actually began 25 years ago with Moneyball, a new way of evaluating players that eventually turned into a very successful book and then an excellent movie. Basically, Oakland GM Billy Bean decided to prioritize on-base percentage above batting average or any other individual stats.
The poster boy for this phenomenon was a slugger named Kevin Youkilis, who walked a lot and struck out even more. After the best-selling book by Michael Lewis came out in 2003, everyone in baseball started looking for their own Kevin Youkilis.
Enter the stat whizzes. In a matter of a few years, every team had an army of nerds looking for the best statistical formula for success. Thus began the world of exit velocities and launch angles.
And the end of baseball as an entertaining game.
I am thrilled to report that Luis Arraez is the antidote to Kevin Youkilis. His walk rate (6%) is among the worst in MLB. Even worse is his hard-contact rate of 20%. I don’t have the numbers for his other advanced stats because I refuse to look them up. I have already recited more statistics than necessary.
Arraez hits the ball, pretty much every at-bat, and he finds open spaces to place it better than anyone in the game. He is an accomplished hitter in a world of unhinged swing-from-the-heels human wind machines.
Welcome to Philadelphia, Luis. I hope, against hope, that you are the first sign of a new direction for a game I have loved for most of my life.
I know this. You have been here one day, and you are already my favorite Phillie.
Prince James, Maybe . . . .
One of the more hilarious offshoots of the seismic LeBron James signing is the notion that now the Sixers are a bonafide rival of the Eagles for fan attention.
Oh, please.
There will be no King James in Philadelphia, unless the 41-year-old basketball icon decides to try his hand at football. It has been a half-century since any team other than the Birds has won the battle for the hearts of our fans. The Sixers are not going to change that reality. I guarantee it. This is the ultimate football city.
The best LeBron can hope for here is Prince James.
How can I be so sure, you ask? Because I have spent the past four decades monitoring the behavior of the most passionate fan base, for any team, In America.
When I was a beat reporter at the Inquirer, I got my first taste of this Eagles-first mentality from both sides. I covered the Flyers in 1983 and ’84, and then the Eagles from 1985-88.
When I was chronicling the Flyers, there was no pressure to do anything. Not even my own bosses cared. The Daily News got a big story first? OK, well find a new angle and get it to us today. Ho hum.
From the first day I took over the Eagles beat, I was shocked at how much more pressure there was. Bosses calling every hour wanting to know what I had for the next day’s newspaper. Can I do a sidebar? Notes?
How much space did I have? The answer was always the same – as much as I needed.
By the time I had made the transition from journalism to radio, I thought I realized how much bigger a deal the Eagles were than our teams in the other major sports. Actually, all I had at that point was an inkling.
I will never forget a meeting I had with the WIP program director, Tom Bigby, early in my first year as a full-time host. The blustery Bigby called me in to show me a breakdown of the ratings. He was a chronic pain in the ass, but the numbers didn’t lie. Whenever we were talking about the Eagles, the ratings went up. If we switched to any other sports, and you could almost hear the clicks as listeners changed the station in pursuit of their Eagles’ fix.
Philadelphia is famous for embracing its champions, no doubt because we have had so few in the past 50 years. I wasn’t here for the two Flyers Stanley Cups in 1974 and 75, but I had just arrived when the Sixers won it all in 1983, and I was well into my tenure at WIP when the Phillies won in 2008.
For a day or two, yes, the championship teams took precedence, but never for more than that. And when the Eagles won their first Super Bowl in 2017, we went weeks without any calls about the other teams.
I know what you’re thinking. Yeah, but none of those rivals had King James to ramp up interest, to create the kind of soap opera our sports fans can luxuriate in. Sorry, even the biggest names don’t move the needle that far here.
When the Sixers had their most exciting player ever, Allen Iverson, they never were better than a distant second place in Philly. What about the most compelling figure in sports for a while, Charles Barkley? Sorry, still No. 2 or 3.
Meanwhile, for most of the past half-century, the Phillies have been second in the hearts of our fans, but never close to first. Even after they signed Bryce Harper, one of the most controversial and talented players of his era, the Phillies never approached the Eagles in popularity, regardless of who the stars were or how successful the team was.
At the moment, the Sixers are a more interesting team than the Phillies. (The Flyers are just now starting to register again after years of irrelevance.) I am very much looking forward to seeing how this crazy LeBron twist works out here.
But let’s be serious. The Eagles just opened training camp, and the first game is a month away.
Once the new season gets rolling, King James is going to have to deal with a new reality.
He’s going to find out what if feels like to be King Who?